Insider Advantage (3/17, registered voters, no trendlines):
Roy Barnes (D): 35
Casey Cagle (R): 39
Undecided: 26Roy Barnes (D): 38
John Oxendine (R): 33
Undecided: 29Roy Barnes (D): 34
Karen Handel (R): 29
Undecided: 37(MoE: 4%)
Barnes, 61, served as Georgia’s governor for one term (1999-2003), until he was unexpectedly booted out by Sonny Perdue – who is himself term-limited, making this an open seat. Cagle is the current Lt. Gov., Oxendine is the state Insurance Commissioner, and Handel is the Secretary of State.
The original poll results are unfortunately behind a paywall now, so I don’t know what Barnes’s name rec looks like, over six years after he left office. I’d suspect it’s still fairly high, but his favorables are a separate question. Meanwhile, IA does say that all three GOP contenders are fairly unknown, so we might be comparing Generic R to Well-Known D.
These uncertainties, plus the high undecideds, might mean that Barnes isn’t actually as competitive as these early numbers show. I recall one poll just over four years ago which showed Lucy Baxley leading AL Gov. Bob Riley 39-35 with 26% undecided. Twenty months later, those numbers were the dimmest of memories.
Would be nice to see some numbers from other possibilities.
i never saw those polls with Lucy leading Riley by 39-35.
Was that an Anzalone poll?
Roy Barnes name i.d. is still strong here in Georgia. He has been very critical of the way the GOP have been running the state the past 2-3 years. He has written op-ed articles in the Atlanta Journal Constitution & the Marietta Journal. He will most likely run again in 2010. But keep an eye on DuBose Porter & Thurbert Baker.
I think if Barnes could successfully define Cagle with the current failures in the state legislature I think many undecideds could go Barnes way. The memories of him have largely faded by now and I think he could raise the money necessary to articulate a pretty convincing message of competence and leadership in a difficult time.
If only this election were in 2008 instead of 2010. We probably would have had a 50/50 shot with even a halfway credible candidate given the sky high AA turnout.
No one predicted it, and it wasn’t even that close. He manged to piss nearly everyone off in four years time. He deserved to lose. Unless he is willing to do a major mea culpa, the Dems need to find another candidate.